DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z THU 19/12 - 06Z FRI 20/12 2002
ISSUED: 18/12 17:49Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AEGEAN SEA

SYNOPSIS

A STRONG RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE AIR-MASS IS STABLE EXPECT ACROSS SOUTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER GREECE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

DISCUSSION

...AEGEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER VORT MAX DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN EUROPE IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN. AN INTENSE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE AEGEAN SEA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SB LIFTED INDICES IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE. DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED WHEN ASCENT AHEAD OF JET STREAK APPROACHES THE FRONT IN THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATGORICAL RISK.

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